hecate: exclude dry-run history from shutdown budget estimation

internal/cluster/orchestrator.go

@@ -98,6 +98,7 @@ func (o *Orchestrator) Startup(ctx context.Context, opts StartupOptions) (err er
 		ID:        fmt.Sprintf("startup-%d", time.Now().UnixNano()),
 		Action:    "startup",
 		Reason:    opts.Reason,
+		DryRun:    o.runner.DryRun,
 		StartedAt: time.Now().UTC(),
 	}
 	defer o.finalizeRecord(&record, &err)
@@ -343,6 +344,7 @@ func (o *Orchestrator) Shutdown(ctx context.Context, opts ShutdownOptions) (err
 		ID:        fmt.Sprintf("shutdown-%d", time.Now().UnixNano()),
 		Action:    "shutdown",
 		Reason:    opts.Reason,
+		DryRun:    o.runner.DryRun,
 		StartedAt: time.Now().UTC(),
 	}
 	defer o.finalizeRecord(&record, &err)

internal/state/store.go

@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ type RunRecord struct {
 	ID              string    `json:"id"`
 	Action          string    `json:"action"`
 	Reason          string    `json:"reason,omitempty"`
+	DryRun          bool      `json:"dry_run,omitempty"`
 	StartedAt       time.Time `json:"started_at"`
 	EndedAt         time.Time `json:"ended_at"`
 	DurationSeconds int       `json:"duration_seconds"`
@@ -207,7 +208,7 @@ func (s *Store) shutdownP95(defaultSeconds int, minSamples int, reasonPrefixes [
 		return false
 	}
 	for _, r := range records {
-		if r.Action == "shutdown" && r.Success && r.DurationSeconds > 0 && matchesPrefix(r.Reason) {
+		if r.Action == "shutdown" && !r.DryRun && r.Success && r.DurationSeconds > 0 && matchesPrefix(r.Reason) {
 			d = append(d, r.DurationSeconds)
 		}
 	}

internal/state/store_test.go

@@ -160,3 +160,42 @@ func TestShutdownP95ByReasonPrefixFiltersSamples(t *testing.T) {
 		t.Fatalf("expected filtered p95 of 220, got %d", got)
 	}
 }
+
+func TestShutdownP95IgnoresDryRunSamples(t *testing.T) {
+	p := filepath.Join(t.TempDir(), "runs.json")
+	now := time.Now().UTC()
+	records := []RunRecord{
+		{
+			ID:              "shutdown-dryrun",
+			Action:          "shutdown",
+			Reason:          "ups-threshold target=Pyrphoros",
+			DryRun:          true,
+			StartedAt:       now,
+			EndedAt:         now,
+			DurationSeconds: 5,
+			Success:         true,
+		},
+		{
+			ID:              "shutdown-real",
+			Action:          "shutdown",
+			Reason:          "ups-threshold target=Pyrphoros",
+			DryRun:          false,
+			StartedAt:       now,
+			EndedAt:         now,
+			DurationSeconds: 210,
+			Success:         true,
+		},
+	}
+	b, err := json.Marshal(records)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("marshal records: %v", err)
+	}
+	if err := os.WriteFile(p, b, 0o640); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("write records: %v", err)
+	}
+
+	got := New(p).ShutdownP95ByReasonPrefix(420, 1, []string{"ups-"})
+	if got != 210 {
+		t.Fatalf("expected dry-run sample to be ignored and real value 210 used, got %d", got)
+	}
+}